Cheat Lake, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

996
FXUS61 KPBZ 292341
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
641 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow shower activity is expected to decrease before midnight. A new
disturbance is expected to impact the region Friday into Saturday,
warm temperatures and rain could create flooding concerns along
small streams and rivers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
- Snow shower activity will decrease before 10pm
- Gusty wind continues in eastern Tucker; High Wind Warning
  expires at 1am Thurs
----------------------------------------------------------------

A passing shortwave has keep snow shower activity north of
Pittsburgh. Building high pressure from the southwest has create
clearing and gust wind conditions over the last 3 hours.
Confidence remains high that isolated snow showers will disipate
before midnight as warm air advances from the west.

With increase subsidence, clearing will likely persist
overnight. Overnight temperatures will likley be near average, mid-20s
near the PIT metro and mid teens near I-80 and the ridges.

Probability of impactful winds in eastern Tucker County will
decrease below 50% between 3am and 6am Thursday morning; the
High Wind Warning will likely not need to be extended in time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Quiet and warm weather expected Thursday
- Flood Watch in effect Friday for portions of the region due to
  rain, snow melt, and potential ice jams; an expansion may be
  necessary
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Dry, quiet weather is expected Thursday under high pressure.
Highs are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above average under
warm advection.

A central CONUS trough will advance eastward Thursday night, as
a surface low develops across the Midwest. Increasing moisture,
warm-advection ascent, and a crossing surface warm front will
result in increasing rain chances across the region Thursday
night. After initially falling a couple of degrees in the
evening, temperatures should remain steady or slowly rise
overnight, minimizing any freezing rain potential.

Forecast variability in this time range is dominated heavily by
differences in the speed/timing of phasing of a closed low from
the swrn CONUS, with some guidance suggesting a faster phasing
process is possible. The net effect of this quicker process
might suggest faster arrival of warm air and faster onset of
warm advection-driven rain on Thu evening than suggested in the
ensemble mean.

Although there remains some spread in the track of the system`s
associated sfc low, general consensus suggests a track across
nrn OH and nwrn PA, eventually pulling a cold front across the
region. With such a track, rain would potentially continue on
Fri/Fri evening, but could be mitigated partly by mid-level
dry-air entrainment. Nevertheless, jet-induced ageostrophic ascent
is also likely on Friday, which could enhance rainfall totals
in a focused area.

Ensemble mean rainfall for Thu night thru Fri suggests is at
1.00" over the upper Mon/Cheat Rivers, with considerable spread
(as high as 1.75" in the WV Ridges) owing to variations in
where the jet enhancement overlaps favorably with synoptic
ascent. With the current water equivalent of snowpack on the
ground in this area, and the potential for higher-than-mean
rainfall in a localized axis across this area, river conditions
are being monitored closely for potential for ice breakup and
related flooding. Temperatures are expected to range in the
lower 40s N to mid 50s south, which should also accelerate any
ice/snow melt.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cold front expected to advance late Friday/early Saturday
- Warm up starting Sunday through early next week
- Minimal precipitation chances through the period

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Model ensembles indicate broad troughing will persist across the
eastern CONUS through much of the period as low pressure closes
off in the nwrn CONUS, yielding quasi-zonal flow across much of
the CONUS. Within this flow, ensemble members suggest a number
of low-amplitude shortwave troughs could traverse the nrn CONUS
during the Days 4-7 timeframe.

The stronger the low in the nwrn CONUS, the greater the
amplitude of the downstream flow and greater the potential for
these disturbances to eject. The ern- CONUS low is widely
expected to shift ewd toward mid-week while the nwrn-CONUS low
evolves slowly, maintaining a multi-day stretch of wly to wnwly
flow aloft across the nrn CONUS.

Above average temperatures are featured in the most-likely
forecast scenario Sun and Mon, with readings on Tue likely to be
much closer to seasonal average.

The potential tracks of low pressure through this period could
spell occasional gusty days, especially Sun, but at this time,
the spread of potential outcomes in the probability space
suggests a limited risk of headline-worthy gusts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The current conditions across the area feature the snow showers
over the area have weakened and dissipated. Still the front
remains stalled across the area, this will keep at least some
VFR cigs over the area through the night with a few instances of
snow through the night. Thus, will be looking at VFR TAFs
through the period. The NBM probs are giving around 30% to 40%
overnight for MVFR cigs and this is mainly confined to the north
and northeast. Thus, the FKL and DUJ TAFs will still have a
period overnight for the potential of MVFR cigs. Winds will
decrease from the southwest overnight and become northwest. Wind
speeds will decrease from 20 knots to around 10 knots through
the overnight. Expect VFR conditions to remain after 06Z
tonight and remain through the TAF period.

Mid and upper level cloud cover will begin to increase through
the day tomorrow with the approach of the next low pressure
system.

Outlook... Widespread VFR returns Thursday under high pressure.
Restriction and rain chances return Friday with low pressure. A
warm front returns restriction potential on Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts between 0.75-1.50 inches falling on a melting
snowpack could contribute to significant rises on area rivers,
especially in the Mon, Yough and Cheat basins. These rises will
certainly disturb areal river ice and could create ice jam
flooding. At this time multiple forecast points are forecast to
hit action stage but none are currently forecast to hit minor
flood stage.

Mon, Yough and Cheat Basins:
These basins are grouped together because their anticipated rain
totals, snowpack and ice coverage are expected to create similar
issues.

Rises on the Upper Mon and Cheat rivers are expected to on the
order of 6-12 feet. These rises will certainly disturb any river
ice and can exacerbate issues seen across these basins. At this
time there are several locations in these basins forecast to reach
action stage.

Rises on the Lower Mon are expected to be on the order of 10-20
feet. This is expected to take all forecast points on the Lower
Mon to action, but not to minor flood.

Rises on the Yough are expected to be on the order of 3-6 feet.
These rises will certainly disturb thick river ice observed along
the river. At this time no points are forecast to reach action
stage but issues due to ice jams can bring flood concerns anyway.

Allegheny, Ohio and Musk Basins:
Upcoming rainfall and current snowpack are lighter in these
basins. However, rain on rotting snow, river ice and the heating
induced snowmelt are likely to cause rises over the next several
days.

Rises on the Allegheny are expected to be on the order of 1-3
feet. These rises could be enough to disturb the current ice
coverage on the river and lead to ice jam flooding. At this time
no points in the Allegheny Basin are expected to reach action
stage.

Rises on the Ohio are expected to be on the order of 5-10 feet.
At this time no points are forecast to move to action stage but
the disturbance of ice may cause issues.

Rises on the Beaver, Muskingum and Tuscarawas rivers are expected
to be on the order of 1-3 feet. At this time no points are
expected to move to action stage. However, these rises are
sufficient to disturb plentiful areal ice coverage and cause
issues.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday
     afternoon for PAZ073>076.
OH...None.
WV...Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday
     afternoon for WVZ509>514.
     High Wind Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for WVZ514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Kramar
LONG TERM...Kramar
AVIATION...Shallenberger
HYDROLOGY...